Wednesday 9 October 2013

95% CONFIDENCE LEVEL........................

              Science is the systematic body of knowledge that has helped man to unravel myths, shatter superstitions and demystify mysteries as well enigmatic concepts and situations. Science is more of a search light to man that enlightens man, guide his explanations and brings his decision to a logical conclusion. Without it man will be an ignoramus and will continually be subjected to the ideas of great men alone without verifications. Science is illuminating while scientists can be said to be illuminators. In diverse concerns of human endeavour you will find scientists with apt disciplinary methodologies and protocols to undertake and drive decisions into rational deductions. The debate on the enigmatic causes of climate change has been on, with the for and against proponents over whether climate change was anthropogenically induced or not. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 1989 was grafted into the scene by United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and World Meteorological Organization (WMO), with three working groups which focused on the scientific assessment of climate change, environmental and socio-economic impacts and response strategies, prognosticating the wide range of challenges that humanity would face as it entered the new millennium. The IPCC’s scientific assessments have produced four long-winded reports with the four preceding accounts tinged with their levels of confidence as well as the unalloyed scepticisms and disbeliefs by deniers for reasons best known to them. Most recently, the fifth assessment report (AR5) was accounted with a confidence level of 95% that the causes of climate change are laconically anthropogenic. A reliability measure of 95% on any research is statistically and conventionally a gold standard on planet earth.
                 The first implication of this report is that researchers can now quote with a higher assertion and confidence the definitions attributing climate change to human activities, which corroborates the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), definition of climate change in its Article 1, defining climate change as: “a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods.”
                  Also, climate change deniers can now attune themselves with the argument and claims of IPCC that climate change is man induced, hence a need for deniers to decamp and boldly pitch their tents with their opponents as well as convince their allies to consolidate the fight against harsh climate crisis. 


       Furthermore, climate change mitigation efforts must be consolidated bearing in mind that the Scientific report AR5 has for the first time set an upper limit on CO2 emissions, contending that humanity can combust only one-third of the 3 trillion tons of fossil fuels that still remain in the ground. Equally, the prophesy of IPCC on the trillionth ton of carbon that will be released around 2040 and beyond as well as what is in stock for the world in terms of destabilizing temperature increases exceeding 20C, or 3.60F must not be  treated with kids glove.
    Additionally, adaptation, the philosophy of living with climate changes, its attendant challenges and opportunities should be more concerted among developing countries with the assistance from the developed powers because Climate change will hit poor countries the hardest (UNDP), the vulnerable and the exposed. The sensitive must therefore be identified and shielded from the likely impacts of climate change, their adaptive capacities, coping strategies and indigenous responses must be strengthened.
   Finally, with the confidence level of anthropogenic climate change, the quest and the tenets of sustainable development must be upheld by all and integrated into the agenda of every nation and the programmes of every region.
              In conclusion, it now crystal clear and even more lucid that perturbations in climate is grossly anthropogenically driven as an evidence of unsustainable living, a reminder on the need for sustainable development which will bridge our past with our present and our future and also bridge our planet to our people and our prosperity. AR5 further supports the need for sustainable development. If this group (IPCC) comprising hundreds of scientists can give 95% confidence level that climate change is caused by man’s unsustainable living on the planet in the past, then no other group of scientists can give less.

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