95% CONFIDENCE LEVEL........................
Science
is the systematic body of knowledge that has helped man to unravel myths,
shatter superstitions and demystify mysteries as well enigmatic concepts and
situations. Science is more of a search light to man that enlightens man, guide
his explanations and brings his decision to a logical conclusion. Without it man
will be an ignoramus and will continually be subjected to the ideas of great
men alone without verifications. Science is illuminating while scientists can
be said to be illuminators. In diverse concerns of human endeavour you will find
scientists with apt disciplinary methodologies and protocols to undertake and
drive decisions into rational deductions. The debate on the enigmatic causes of
climate change has been on, with the for and against proponents over whether
climate change was anthropogenically induced or not. The Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 1989 was grafted into the scene by United
Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and World Meteorological Organization
(WMO), with three working groups which focused on the scientific assessment of
climate change, environmental and socio-economic impacts and response
strategies, prognosticating the wide range of challenges that humanity would
face as it entered the new millennium. The IPCC’s scientific assessments have
produced four long-winded reports with the four preceding accounts tinged with their
levels of confidence as well as the unalloyed scepticisms and disbeliefs by deniers for reasons best known to them. Most recently, the fifth assessment
report (AR5) was accounted with a confidence level of 95% that the causes of
climate change are laconically anthropogenic. A reliability measure of 95% on any
research is statistically and conventionally a gold standard on planet earth.
The first
implication of this report is that researchers can now quote with a higher assertion
and confidence the definitions attributing climate change to human activities, which
corroborates the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC),
definition of climate change in its Article 1, defining climate change as: “a change of climate which is attributed
directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the
global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability
observed over comparable time periods.”
Also, climate
change deniers can now attune themselves with the argument and claims of IPCC
that climate change is man induced, hence a need for deniers to decamp and
boldly pitch their tents with their opponents as well as convince their allies
to consolidate the fight against harsh climate crisis.
Furthermore,
climate change mitigation efforts must be consolidated bearing in mind that the
Scientific report AR5 has for the first time set an upper limit on CO2 emissions,
contending that humanity can combust only one-third of the 3 trillion tons of
fossil fuels that still remain in the ground. Equally, the prophesy of IPCC on
the trillionth ton of carbon that will be released around 2040 and beyond as
well as what is in stock for the world in terms of destabilizing temperature
increases exceeding 20C, or 3.60F must not be treated with kids glove.
Additionally,
adaptation, the philosophy of living with climate changes, its attendant
challenges and opportunities should be more concerted among developing
countries with the assistance from the developed powers because Climate change will hit poor countries the
hardest (UNDP), the vulnerable and the
exposed. The sensitive must therefore be identified and shielded from the
likely impacts of climate change, their adaptive capacities, coping strategies
and indigenous responses must be strengthened.
Finally, with
the confidence level of anthropogenic climate change, the quest and the tenets
of sustainable development must be upheld by all and integrated into the agenda
of every nation and the programmes of every region.
In conclusion,
it now crystal clear and even more lucid that perturbations in climate is
grossly anthropogenically driven as an evidence of unsustainable living, a
reminder on the need for sustainable development which will bridge our past with our present and our future and
also bridge our planet to our people and our prosperity. AR5 further supports the need for sustainable
development. If this group (IPCC) comprising hundreds of scientists can give 95%
confidence level that climate change is caused by man’s unsustainable living on
the planet in the past, then no other group of scientists can give less.
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